Oscar nomination voting officially opened Monday in a race that is the tightest in recent memory. Golden Globe nominations were unveiled last week with Steven Spielberg’s “Lincoln” leading the pack, but other frontrunners like “Argo” and “Zero Dark Thirty” scored nods where expected. In recent days, more critics groups have weighed in with many giving love to Paul Thomas Anderson’s “The Master.” But with just two weeks until nominations are announced on January 5, it’s important to remember, as Variety writes, “nothing’s been decided.”

Sasha Stone at Awards Daily intones, “What has come out of the awards rush most prominently is that ‘Lincoln’ is already breaking records for Steven Spielberg. It isn’t a surprise that it’s just about to cross $100 million, in only 2K theaters. But it is a surprise that it broke a SAG record for Spielberg with 4 nominations… and it’s a surprise that it just broke Spielberg’s Golden Globe record with 7. It also broke the Critics Choice record for any film, much less a Spielberg film, with 13. Maybe you’re thinking it doesn’t matter much until we hear from the DGA and the PGA. But it most certainly does matter, and if you’re paying attention you can see what’s coming. Basically, right now anyway, it is “Lincoln” vs. everything else.”

Among the notable exclusions at the Golden Globes were “Les Misérables’” Tom Hooper and “Silver Linings Playbook’s” David O Russell, who failed to receive directing nods.

But, the race will be much clearer when the DGA announces its nominees on January 8. “If Tom Hooper misses there, for instance, it means a LOT more than his snub by the HFPA,” says In Contention’s Kris Tapley.

Deadline’s Pete Hammond calls the directing race “a barnburner… There are now seven solid contenders in the Best Picture race – ‘Argo,’ ‘Django,’ ‘Life of Pi,’ ‘Lincoln,’ ‘Zero Dark Thirty,’ ‘Silver Linings’ and ‘Les Mis,’ with Michael Haneke’s Foreign Language Film-nominated ‘Amour’ a wild card in the Picture and Directing categories at the Oscars — but there are only five director slots, and gaining one of those is where the game is really heading.”

Here’s Stone again: “’Les Misérables’ and ‘Silver Linings Playbook’ could be like ‘Crash’ — no director nod at Globes, wins Editing + SAG ensemble, loses DGA, wins Oscar for Picture. It’s not impossible. ‘Zero Dark Thirty’ could be like ‘Braveheart,’ no SAG ensemble nod but win DGA, then Picture and Director. Not impossible.”

Speaking of SAG, the exclusions there included “The Master’s” Joaquin Phoenix and Amy Adams. Tapley does not think that will mean much when it comes to the Academy, saying there’s “very little” cross-over between SAG’s nominating committee and the Academy’s actors branch. But Hammond says that “the correlation between SAG and Oscar has been strong: In the past two years, the two orgs agreed on 17 of 20 acting noms. Three years ago it was 19 of 20. And although the 2000-strong nominating committee that votes on this film list changes by lottery every year, it’s remarkably in step with the tastes of the Academy’s Actors Branch.”

Separately, Stone looks at the original screenplay contenders here while Hammond examines the adapted batch saying the category is “where the action really is… It is proof positive that either Hollywood is lacking in great original ideas or the most promising material in terms of Best Picture candidates has come from another medium.”

In other news, 7 movies advanced this week in the hair and make-up category: “Hitchcock,” “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey,” “Les Misérables,” “Lincoln,” “Looper,” “Men in Black 3” and “Snow White and the Huntsman.”

Here is a handy update on the critics’ awards and nominations. 

And, finally, the Palm Springs Fest has added more tributes: Richard Gere will be honored with the Chairman’s Award, Tom Hooper gets the Sonny Bono Visionary award and “Life of Pi” composer Mychael Danna will be honored with the Frederick Loewe award for film composing.

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http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/new-york-film-critics-online