Online piracy, shrinking box office attendance, strikes, the Recession – these are just a few issues that have contributed to the knockdowns and shake-up’s in the entertainment industry over the past decade. Traditionally, tracking studio overhead deals is considered a reliable yardstick for monitoring the health of the business. As a new year of expectations gets underway and as tectonic shifts continue to sway the industry, SSN takes a closer look at trends in overhead deals to evaluate where they stand today and what clues they offer in forecasting the industry’s future.

Given the odds against the industry, you might assume that overhead deals were on the downturn lately. But that isn’t entirely true. When we compare the current number of deals with post-recession 2009 numbers, it becomes clear that the industry is in a holding pattern, with some reaping profit from their deals and others not so much. After crunching the numbers, the changes, at first, seem minor, but, on closer look, the picture that takes shape indicates novel patterns that takes into account new strategies among the Big Six and the entry of new players.

SSN broke down overhead deals into four categories: producers, directors, talent and writers. Multi-hyphenates were put in the category of their emphasis. For example, Clint Eastwood still headlines, but the bulk of his work today is behind the camera, putting Malpaso with directors.

We then looked at who kept their deals at the same studio, who lost their deal (even though a few, like Scott Rudin and Gil Netter, changed homes), and who had been added within the past three years.

Clarity in the Numbers

The number of overhead deals has barely budged, registering a mere 2% total increase of three pacts at the major and mini-major studios. Producers stayed stagnant, with an increase of only five deals. While the actual number of writer deals is the lowest of all groups with a total of nine, it still represents an 80% increase from 2009 levels. Talent deals rose 32% from 25 to 33. The real surprise reveals directors’ deals dropping 30%, from 43 to 30 when compared to 2009.

Regime Changes and Major Slashes at Disney

Disney cleaned house more than any studio since the recession, with a 36% drop in deals. Some of this can be attributed to long-time Chairman Dick Cook stepping down in 2009 to be replaced by former Disney Channel President Rich Ross, who himself was replaced in 2012 by former Warner Bros. President Alan Horn. Disney made a move away from relying on pacts to create content with its acquisition of Marvel Studios in 2009 and its continued partnership with Pixar Animation Studios.

The Mouse House is the only studio in town without a single writer deal. Talent and director deals are also extremely low priority, made clear by the fact that 79% of Disney’s fifteen deals are with producers.

Warners Throws Open the Gates

Warner Bros. put more muscle into their deals with an increase of 21% since 2009 from 24 to 29. Producers still hold the majority of deals, but writers jumped 300% and talent 125%, adding three and five deals respectively. Directors deals were slashed in half, with only four director-driven companies (Wychwood/David Yates, Cruel & Unusual/Zack Snyder, Green Hat/Todd Phillips, Malpaso/Clint Eastwood) remaining.

Steady as She Goes

Paramount remains stable with its pacts, adding one producer and one writer (multi-hyphenate Josh Schwartz’s Fake Empire). Three years ago, the studio had no deals with writers.

Directors saw the biggest drop over the past three years at Sony and Universal. While Sony increased deals from 28 to 30, directors fell from five to only two. Uni went the Warner Bros. route, cutting directors 50% from ten to five. Universal was one deal lighter overall.

Sony and Universal have stars in their eyes and added talent deals, jumping up from five to seven and two to five respectively. Both studios kept writers at a distance with one deal each.

Over the 2009-2012 frame, Fox was the only studio to increase director deals, going from six to eight. Writers at Fox saw a jump from zero to two. Talent deals suffered the most here, going from a slight four deals to one total.

Outside the Big Six

The loss of Miramax, Overture and big changes at MGM led to 11 deals shuttering. But the entry of Reliance onto the scene picked up the slack, adding 13 deals to the mix.

Talent in the indie world saw a 33% growth from six to eight. Directors stayed steady with indie deals, accounting for a total of four in 2009 and 2012. Producers have a total of ten deals compared to eight previous, and there are currently no writers with deals outside of the majors.

So what’s the takeaway from this game of musical chairs? Have studios discovered that—while they value their directors—director-driven companies produce less output due to the intensive amount of time a director devotes to each film? Or have some top directors found ways to get a movie made without relying on the Big Six to finance their films? Why have some studios gotten stingier with rewarding talent with overhead deals—so commonplace in the go-go 1990s—than others?

Over the next few weeks, SSN will dig deeper into this discussion to find out which players have benefitted most from these changes in the past three years and which have taken a hit. We will go beyond the numbers and the scorecards to chart the road ahead for our industry.